It was the 2022 midterms, and I was gearing up for a Republican House and Senate. Everything in front of me had me anticipating massive gains for the Party. I, along with many, learned a very hard lesson when the dust settled and the election results were finalized.
Nothing is in the bag. Nothing is guaranteed. Polls aren't always even close to accurate, and moreover, your own bias will paint you a picture of the landscape with or without your consent. You will rest easy in the comfort of a falsehood you really believe is the truth. Reality is oftentimes not what you think it is.
This is why no one should rest easy about November.
As my colleague Levon Satamian reported, Ted Cruz gave a very good warning to Republicans after experiencing the mood at the RNC:
Republicans, I worry, vastly underestimate Kamala Harris. They don’t think very highly of her. They don’t think she’s terribly bright. When you or I bring up Kamala Harris’ name in Republican circles, people laugh. It’s immediately a punchline. I think people are underestimating what billions of dollars of free media of the entire corrupt corporate media complex, pitching her as a combination of Mother Teresa, Oprah and Gandhi.
...
Now, I still think Trump wins in November. But this is not a layup. It is not given. And what’s coming in front of us look, if you’re a Democrat, what makes you nervous is chaos, and this much chaos 100 days out is scary. But you know what? Even more scary is going into an election where you’re almost certain to lose, which is where Biden was.
If you look at the front page of RedState right now, you'll see a ton of articles that spell disaster for the Democrat Party. Even as I speak, there are tweets on X that indicate a massive disadvantage for the DNC's new emergency candidate, Kamala Harris.
.@Polymarket - Presidential Election Winner
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2024
🟥 Donald Trump: 64%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 29%
——
Swing States (chance of winning)
Pennsylvania: 🔴 Trump 55-45%
Wisconsin: 🔴 Trump 55-45%
Michigan: 🔴 Trump 53-47%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 65-35%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 65-35%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump… https://t.co/veR2EE1kGL pic.twitter.com/VAsYdcXROG
I'm in agreement with Cruz that Trump will still likely win this. There's a stellar amount of momentum for the Trump campaign thanks to a fantastic debate appearance and an assassination attempt. While nothing is written in stone, I don't count out dark miracles. As Cruz said, the power of the Democrat-loyal media complex is undeniable. The Democrats might be tripping over their own feet, but the media can spin it to make it look like dancing and low-info voters will believe them.
But while the Harris campaign is fighting a very steep uphill battle, the down ballot races are still a bit more of a toss-up. They were a bit on the iffy side for Democrats with Biden in charge, but with Harris there can be new energy infused into them. Now, Democrats can throw Biden under every bus they can find and pass the failures of the Democrat Party off on him while signaling that Harris is a new leader for a new day.
As the New York Post wrote on Monday, Democrats aren't as focused on Harris as they are all the other elections around the country:
By rallying around Kamala Harris, Democrats are setting themselves up for a replay of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 defeat — and they’re OK with that.
As humiliating as Clinton’s loss to Trump was, she didn’t drag down congressional Democrats, who gained six seats in the House and two in the Senate that year.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was hell-bent on ending President Biden’s re-election bid because she knew how much damage he’d do to down-ballot Democrats.
A memo went out from the DCCC indicating that polling shows Democrats are "overperforming" in battleground polls with Democrats leading Republicans by an average of eight points, and they don't expect that momentum to fade. It should also be noted that these numbers were released in June, so this is not calculating the effect Harris might have here, as Cohen isn't here, which could very well be a boon.
New DCCC memo cites polling that has Frontline Dems leading R challengers by avg of 8 points.
— Max Cohen (@maxpcohen) July 23, 2024
Plus, memo predicts “renewed enthusiasm from Democratic and independent voters, voters of color, and younger voters.” Harris effect? pic.twitter.com/jhb55cpCmr
The bottom line here is that you're not coasting to victory here. You're still in the thick of a very intense fight, and while Republicans might be winning the shiniest of all the races, it will mean little if we lose the more local ones and Republicans are currently losing too many of them. All politics is ultimately local, and if Trump doesn't have the Republicans at his back that are willing to support him and his aims, then Trump's second term will be a disappointing one.
Fight like hell.
