Senate Republicans were riding high after President Biden’s implosion on the debate stage in Atlanta — but they were soon confronted with polling showing Democratic incumbents leading in every single battleground state except Montana.  The polling showing Senate Democratic candidates doing better than the beleaguered Biden in their respective states raised alarms among GOP lawmakers that former President Trump may not have long enough coattails when it comes to Senate races.

“Republicans fear Trump may not have Senate coattails,” The Hill, July 17, 2024

Today’s conventional wisdom (CW) for the 2024 campaign is that Donald Trump has an edge in the presidential race, but the Democrat incumbents in the U.S. Senate are leading in their own races, and no large Republican gains are predicted. This is because, as this article claims, the key issue is that Biden is too old, and the Democrat senators don’t have that problem.

Well, maybe this CW is true. Maybe. But it is very early to worry or celebrate (depending on your party).

The fact is, there is some evidence that in the Senate races, the Trump supporters haven’t yet coalesced behind the other Republican candidates, which they might do later in the campaign. This is because the presidential race is usually the turnout driver for the “lower” races on the ticket, which is why these races are often called “late breaking.” 

And there is certainly plenty of evidence that the Democrat public officials on the ballot are extremely concerned that Donald Trump might have significant coattails after all. Rep. Adam Schiff, running for the U.S. Senate, is just the latest of 20 Democrat House members currently calling on Joe Biden to step down from running for re-election.  

Another Domino Falls: Rep. Adam Schiff Calls for Joe Biden to Leave the Presidential Race

Operation Dump Biden Goes Into High Gear—What Pelosi Reportedly Told Him

There have also been numerous party leaders and consultants expressing their concern.

More evidence may be found from the Senate elections of 1980, during a presidential year to which I have explicitly compared this year’s election. Looking through old Newsweek and Time Magazines, I found some interesting and relevant information regarding those elections. 

On November 3, 1980, the day before the election, Time Magazine’s poll claimed that incumbent Democrat President Jimmy Carter had a 42 percent to 41 percent lead over Republican Ronald Reagan, with 12 percent for Independent John Anderson. It also reported, “Democrats are almost certain to retain control of both chambers… Leaders of both parties predict that the Republicans will score a net gain of … two or three in the Senate.” That same day, Newsweek’s poll had Carter with a similar slight edge over Reagan, 41 percent to 40 percent, with 10 percent for Anderson. It also stated that “a scouting report foresaw prosperity for (the Republican) party as well – a net pickup of perhaps 4 or 5 seats in the Senate…” Newsweek also produced a chart on individual Senate races, with their rankings. 

However, the very next day, Ronald Reagan crushed Jimmy Carter by 51 percent to 41 percent of the national vote, with 7 percent going to Anderson. Reagan's large margin of victory gave a huge boost to Republican Senate candidates, allowing them to flip an almost unprecedented net of 12 Democrat seats.  

Now, let’s look at the individual Senate races in 1980. Below is my chart of these races, with the Newsweek rankings and the actual results from November 4.  

We can see that there were some yuge misses by the CW of 1980, channeled by Time and Newsweek. Newsweek’s predictions were off in the Senate by seven or eight seats. It was also off in the presidential race. Time’s predictions were even worse.  

Meanwhile, in 2024, Donald Trump has a consistent 1-2 point advantage in the Real Clear Politics average, going back to September of 2023. According to RCP, the following Senate races, in a chart I have constructed for you, are the 2024 Senate battlegrounds. 

Considering these facts, I don’t think we can say with confidence that the Democrats are sitting pretty in the 2024 Senate races.  

Oh, and one more thing. Normally, on election day, Senate races tend to tilt one way, with one party winning most of the close races. And with Donald Trump’s steady lead this year, that party is most likely to be the Republicans.